Summary: The Pipeline Policy: Energy Supply and Alliances
Karin Kneissl
Crude oil is to be pumped from the Caspic Sea via Baku and Tiflis/Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean harbour Ceyhan by using the so-called BTC-Pipeline - bypassing Russian transport routes, which is considered a "Western conspiracy” from the Moscow point of view. The Nabucco-Pipeline, which is to transport natural gas from Iran and Central Asia to Central Europe, is considered in a similar way. What amount of power can be exerted in the name of energy supply has become clear since the Russian natural gas delivery cuts in the beginning of 2006.
Pipelines are direct expressions of balance of power. Politics, security, and economical interest determine where and under which legal and technical conditions they run. Thus, for instance, oil agreements and pipelines were criteria for creation of frontiers in the Middle East after the colonial powers had withdrawn. Conflicts are sparked off by the route of pipelines, e.g. in Czeczenia, and end founded on pipeline agreements, as is the case with Afghanistan. Additionally, the network of international terror organisations assigned to Al Qaida has detected and used the vulnerability of the West due to its dependence on oil supplies from the Near East for a long time already.
After its opening the extremely expensive BTC-Pipeline - it will cost about 4 Billions USD - will transport a maximum of 1% of the world’s output; it will, however, offer the opportunity to increase western presence in this region. Local security forces are dependent on close cooperation with the USA in order to protect the pipeline. With the Eastern Ocean Pipeline the transit countries Estonia and Poland are bypassed on purpose. Moscow wants to re-establish its control of the "near foreign countries” in Central Asia in alliance with China and India, thus meeting here with the USA who wish to put their "Eurasia-Strategy” into action.
Energy policy is an integral element of US, Japanese and - recently - Russian foreign affairs and security policy. The fact that Europe’s dependence on Russian energy imports might amount to 80% in 2030 seems to be alarming. If the EU fails to have a common foreign and security policy until then, an energy crisis will have disastrous consequences.
Oil diplomacy increases its interest in other regions loaded with oil. China has initiated a veritable Africa policy in the name of oil, which has both trade and security-political dimensions. In South America foreign affairs and energy policy have started to move not only because of the Venezuelan Hugo Chavez’s activities. In this scenario liquid gas projects become the more realistic - here natural gas is to be shipped from Africa and the Near East to Europe by means of oil tankers.
Energy policy tends to be determined more and more by partially uncontrollable factors. As far as energy supply security is concerned, the transfer of pipelines is only one among many topics. Diversification ought to be the main motivation. Establishing well-balanced mixed energy supply on both European and national level has become of paramount importance.
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