Summary: Strategic Review 2004
Lothar Rühl
The fall of Khadeer Khan, the "father of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb”, has emphasized that, despite all failed attempts to prove that Saddam Hussein was in the possession of weapons of mass destruction, proliferation will continue to be a dominating issue in international relations, at least in the intermediate term, simply because contacts between proliferators and members of terrorist organizations cannot be ruled out a priori.
Libya’s suspension of its nuclear program is no indicator that the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is not hopelessly riddled with holes. This has not least been confirmed by Tehran’s clandestine attempts to cross the threshold, which would gain Iran the status of a regional power - a dangerous move, as it might call Israel on the scene. Nevertheless, much more dangerous than Iran’s efforts are North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, pursued in the shadow of the Iraq War.
Below the line, all predictions and warnings addressed to Washington prior to the beginning of the war in 2003 held true in 2004, with regard to overstretching US troop presence in the Greater Gulf Region and Afghanistan, in case extended military involvement would be needed to stabilize the post-war situation and secure Western influence on the political developments there. The politically motivated break-off of the offensives against Falluja and other centers of insurgency shortly before bringing them to a successful end was intended to gain Iraq’s transition government an edge, giving it a chance to mediate, but in reality only served to let two dozen cities fall into the hands of insurgents.
Equally little encouraging was the development of the situation in Afghanistan, where Karzai could decide the elections for himself, while the larger part of the country still remains in the hands of warlords. The international stabilization force ISAF has no chance to succeed against the cultivation of poppy and the production of drugs. Also, US special troops are not making much progress in cleaning out Taliban and al-Qaeda pockets in the border region to Pakistan.
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