Summary: Brave New World
Martin van Creveld
The events of September 11, 2001 do not represent a turning point in world history, but are a logical sequence within the history of mankind, marked by wars and power struggles. When the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima, a new and thitherto unknown dimension was added. The establishment of a nuclear weapons arsenal prohibited the superpowers to fight each other, and the decline of transnational wars went hand in hand with force reductions.
Since the 17th century, Europe has been dominated by transnational wars overshadowing conflicts in other parts of the world, that went by the name of rebellions, revolutions, civil or guerilla wars. Since the nuclear stalemate after 1945, the traditional forms of war have given way to wars led by, against, and among nonstate organizations without a sovereign state territory and recognized borders. The outstanding feature of the members of such organizations is, that they are undistinguishable from the civil population and the adversaries, and the wars they fight have no front lines, do without heavy or technologically advanced equipment, and take place amidst civil populations.
After 1945, this kind of warfare was limited to the Third World, but found its way into the Second World (the former East Bloc) after 1990/91. With the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon it entered with full force into the First World that tried to react with military forces, still very much those designed to fight a war against the Soviet Union. Unprepared to counter terrorism, the Bush administration carried the conflict to Afghanistan, dispersing the Taliban.
Calling it a "victory” would be an exaggeration, since the Taliban were merely stripped off their heavy weapons, whereas large parts of Al Qaeda have remained in tact, being spread out over many countries, not even being sponsored out of Afghanistan.
Likewise, a quick victory in a war on Iraq will be of no significance for the war on terror. As the new threats cannot be met by conventional forces, it will require special forces designed to do the job.
As a consequence, the state authority will inevitably be tightened, with the possibility of creating the "watchdog” state.
This, in turn, might result in undermining civil and human rights, to the extent of reintroducing torture as a legal instrument, for the purpose of acquiring information. This development is also likely to lead to a booming private security service sector, ultimately challenging the state’s monopoly of applying force.
Life for the individual will become less comfortable and less safe in this "brave new world”, as terrorist threats will lead to stricter controls, and maybe even harassment. Nevertheless it will remain bearable, as people tend to get used to new situations.
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