Summary: Iraq’s Shiites after the Removal of Saddam Hussein
Walter Posch
Two weeks after major combat operations were over in Iraq, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) and the Governing Council were established. It is their task to rebuild the country and its institutions and to create conditions that will allow the Iraqi people to decide for itself about its democratic future. The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) decided to participate in the Governing Council and played an important role in creating an interim administration. Thirteen Shiite members, belonging to different parties, constitute the majority in the Governing Council.
Though the Shiites are the largest population group in Iraq, the ruling Baath Party used to treat them like a deprived minority. Since hoped-for US support did not mature during their uprising against the regime in 1991, their attitude toward the occupation force is ambivalent. While they still hold a grudge against the US for letting them in the lurch they understand that there is a need for some kind of cooperation with US institutions within their country. The Shiites were the only group that had administrational structures in place capable of filling the vacuum after the Baath Party was removed from power.
The most important factors after the fall of the regime were the Great Ayatollah Sistani, the School of Islam in Najaf, Ayatollah Hakim who later was assassinated, the SCIRI, Muqtada Sadr and his followers, the Dawa Party, and the al-Khoei foundation which is described in detail in the article, with regard to its composition as well as its political direction and objectives. What all these groups have in common is the effort to contain chaos. They do so by setting up neighborhood committees and militias as well as by providing humanitarian assistance. As a result, they are firmly rooted within the population.
However, the Shiite groups are split among themselves and vary greatly in their support for the occupation force. More radical groups that are anti-American are trying to take advantage of the people’s frustration with the situation. Attacks, like the assassination of Ayatollah Hakim, presumably go to the account of Saddam supporters. Such actions could further destabilize the country and even lead to civil war between Shiites and Sunnits.
Iran has a vested interest in the developments in its neighbor country but has largely lost control over the SCIRI. Muqtada Sadr and his kinsmen appear to be willing to take that place. On the whole, however, Teheran, accused by the US of running an illegal nuclear program and harboring al-Qaeda terrorists, seems to be pursuing a cautious policy in order to avoid further accusations.
The author is cautiously optimistic as far as a democratic development in Iraq is concerned, simply because the situation has calmed down somewhat in the Shiite part of the country and also because Shiite teaching is not a priori opposed to democracy. Nor is the separation of Church and State ruled out, as direct cleric involvement in politics would contradict traditional Shiite teaching.
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