Summary: South Asia - Great Fears and Hopes
Alain Lamballe
South Asia is comprised of seven states: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives, of which India, due to its size and economic potential, must be considered a regional super power, whose position, however, is being challenged by Pakistan. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the Maldives are officially Muslim states, Sri Lanka and Bhutan are Buddhist, Nepal is a Hindu kingdom, and India, though officially secular, has a Hindu majority.
Due to the complex relationships between the religious and ethnic majorities and minorities and the fact that each of the religions represented in the area is permeated with fundamentalist currents, religion carries a great conflict potential. The more or less unhindered agitation by Islamic extremists in Pakistan has its counterpart in India which harbors comparable Hindu organizations. With Islam and Hinduism two proud and stately worlds collide, leading to a true "clash of civilizations” in the sense of Huntington.
Aside from population growth, the lack of health care and ecological catastrophes represent the biggest threat to security, while in the field of food provision substantial progress has been made over the last few years.
Despite the military strength of their forces, the conflicts between the two states have not resulted in great losses so far. In the era of nuclear power, however, it cannot be ruled out that this may change.
While India and Pakistan seem to share the view that there is a threshold of using nuclear power that should not be overstepped, both countries proceed at an undiminished rate to stock up on their conventional weapons arsenal. As far as interior conflicts are concerned, however, we get a different picture. The partition of the subcontinent in 1947, the foundation of Bangladesh, and the recurring religiously motivated conflicts have already demanded a toll of more than one million victims. With the exception of the Maldives, there are secessionist movements in all South Asian countries, whose members are making use of weapons, thus destabilizing the region.
But there is also a potential for positive developments in South Asia. India’s annual economic growth of 7% as well as its achievements in the areas of research and information technology are encouraging signs. So are the security and confidence building measures between the states in the region, that are slowly setting in. Nevertheless, there is still a lot to be done. It will probably require a new set of leaders to find solutions to those problems that have dominated the agenda for a long time, like the conflict over Cashmere.
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