Summary: Geopolitical Changes and their Analysis – Considerations, using South Asia as a model
Rahul Peter Das
South Asia is about to develop into one of the most important regions in the geopolitical power system, while the European states, possibly with the exception of Great Britain and France, are hardly aware of it. By contrast, the USA’s increased involvement in Asia bears the potential of gradually separating from Europe, which might have profound securitypolitical consequences for the old continent.
Russia, China, India, and Japan are the four Asian states which either already have or are striving to achieve super power status. The first three of them not only comprise two fifths of the world’s population but are nuclear powers that are on an ambivalent footing with the USA and NATO. Also, China is expanding into the direct sphere of US influence, forcing Washington to seek allies in Asia. Since US relations with Russia are still problematic, only Japan and India actually lend themselves to that purpose. However, as Japan is militarily unimportant, it may practically be disregarded, leaving only New Delhi. In fact, over the last few years the USA and India have taken considerable steps toward coming closer together, although the list of potential obstacles is still long.
Another important factor to be taken into account is the vital interest the West has in Central Asia, particularly with regard to the energy resources in the region around the Caspian Sea. There the interests of the three big continental Asian states and the USA converge and, though to a somewhat lesser degree, also those of Europe. To the extent that Washington and New Delhi are getting closer together, US-Pakistani relations are cooling down. On the other hand Indian-Israeli and Israeli-Turkish cooperation in the military field facilitate the formation of new alliances. It can no longer be ruled out that also Russia might be attracted by such an anti-Islamic union.
Aside from the power constellations resulting from US-Indian interaction, other alternatives are thinkable as well, such as the suggestion of forming a strategic triangle involving Russia, China, and India, as Russian Foreign Minister Primakow proposed in 1998 - an idea which is gaining more and more support in Moscow. The indifference with which Europe is currently viewing the developments in Asia should not be underestimated, however. There is a definite need for public discussion, in order to prevent Europe from being marginalized.
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