Summary: The Strategic Situation at the Turn of the Year
Lothar Rühl
Six critical developments have formed international politics and the security situation in 2005 and at the turn of the year. The first factor has been the failure of American politics concerning Iraq, with its effects on pro-west regimes in the Near East, although it was possible to avoid the outbreak of a general civil war in Iraq in 2005.
Doubtlessly, however, the internationalisation of the rebellion in Iraq, which was supported actively by Iran and Syria, increased international pressure on Damascus dramatically. Washington, on the other hand, lacks an "exit strategy” in Iraq. This is a burden for its international freedom of action, and additionally regional players make a conflict resolution more difficult.
Secondly, at best the crisis in Afghanistan has hardened. The allies try to fight instability by increasing the number of ISAF-troops. Both the president and the government of Afghanistan have been cut off from the major part of the country, where warlords continue to have the final say and the Taliban sporadically venture to return. Another falling apart of the country, which has never been totally united, seems possible. Thirdly, things concerning a conflict resolution after Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip do not look hopeful. The Middle East democratic transformation process considered by Washington is in danger of foundering.
Fourthly, in spite of the downgrading of "war” against terrorism to "struggle” in order to stress the non-military component of this kind of conflict, the international coalition is crumbling. Thus, a pro-active fight against terrorism increases in difficulty the more multi-layered this kind of fight becomes. This war without fixed front lines and tactile enemies is too much for the USA and their allies to handle.
The fifth factor of instability comes from Iran’s nuclear policy, from a program for the extraction of nuclear material suitable for nuclear weapons, which has been hidden for years. By using the threat with its "crude oil weapon” Iran has been trying to keep its room for manoeuvre. Additionally, North Korea’s nuclear proliferation-policy and its threatening attitude against South Korea and Japan has an effect not only on Far East, but also on the Middle and Near East, because Pyongyang has proved that it is possible to prevent an US-intervention by actually being in possession of nuclear weapons, something Iraq was not able to manage with its supposed nuclear program.
Last, but not least nuclear proliferation still continues to be a topic; all over the world more and more atomic energy is used because of the high oil price. Thus, access to fissionable material becomes easier, which comes down to additional future challenges.
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